This book is a world geography of poliomyelitis from antiquity to the present day. In the twentieth century, poliomyelitis emerged to become a global crippler and killer. But with the development of preventive vaccines in the 1950s poliomyelitis looks set to be the first disease since smallpox in 1979 to be eliminated by direct human intervention.

Matthew Smallman-Raynor and Andrew Cliff are Professors of Geography at Nottingham and Cambridge Universities. With Peter Haggett at the University of Bristol, they have led an interdisciplinary research group for over a quarter of a century which has worked upon the spatial diffusion of infectious diseases. Special focuses for the group have been reconstructing the processes by which diseases move from one geographical region to another, understanding the causes of epidemic waxing and waning in time and space, and the demographic consequences of disease. Together, they have written twenty research monographs and 100 scientific papers on these topics.

List of Figures and Plates

xvii

List of Tables

xxvii

Acknowledgements

xxxiii

1. Introduction

1

(23)

1.1 Introduction

1

(2)

1.2 Poliomyelitis—The Disease

3

(3)

1.3 Selection of Poliomyelitis

6

(11)

1.4 The Biography of Poliomyelitis

17

(4)

1.5 Organization of the Book

21

(3)

2. The Nature of Poliomyelitis

24

(37)

2.1 Introduction

24

(1)

2.2 Poliovirus

25

(5)

2.3 Poliomyelitis as a Disease

30

(8)

2.4 The Epidemiology of Poliomyelitis

38

(6)

2.5 The Control of Poliomyelitis

44

(9)

2.6 Surveillance for Poliomyelitis: Data Issues

53

(6)

2.7 Conclusion

59

(2)

3. The Pre-epidemic History of Poliomyelitis (Antiquity to AD 1880)

61

(20)

3.1 Introduction

61

(1)

3.2 The Origins and Early Occurrence of Poliomyelitis

62

(6)

3.3 Poliomyelitis, AD 500-1800

68

(4)

3.4 Early Clusters, 1801-1880

72

(5)

3.5 Conclusion

77

(4)

Part I Epidemic Emergence, 1881-1920: Early Centres and Localized Outbreaks

4. Europe

81

(47)

4.1 Introduction

81

(1)

4.2 Patterns and Processes of Poliomyelitis Emergence: Global Sequences and Theoretical Frameworks

82

(7)

4.3 The Scandinavian Focus

89

(19)

4.4 England and Wales

108

(14)

4.5 Other Countries: Continental Europe

122

(5)

4.6 Conclusion

127

(1)

5. New Worlds

128

(61)

5.1 Introduction

128

(1)

5.2 Overview: Outbreaks in the United States, 1881-1909

129

(5)

5.3 The New York Epidemic of 1907

134

(16)

5.4 The New York Epidemic of 1916

150

(24)

5.5 State-Level Studies: Charles S. Caverly and the Vermont Series, 1910-1917

174

(3)

5.6 Other New World Countries

177

(3)

5.7 Conclusion

180

(9)

Part II Global Expansion, 1921-1955: Epidemic Poliomyelitis in the Pre-vaccine Era

Introduction to Part II

189

(242)

6. Epidemic Trends: An International Perspective

191

(66)

6.1 Introduction

192

(2)

6.2 The International Database

194

(5)

6.3 Global Time Series

199

(3)

6.4 World Regional Patterns

202

(13)

6.5 Indices of Epidemic Transition: Infant Mortality Rates (IMRs)

215

(6)

6.6 The Recognition of Tropical Poliomyelitis: Allied Forces in World War II

221

(10)

6.7 Regional Case Studies in Tropical Poliomyelitis

231

(24)

6.8 Conclusion

255

(2)

7. Mainland North America

257

(53)

7.1 Introduction

257

(3)

7.2 The United States, I: National Patterns

260

(22)

7.3 The United States, II: Regional Analyses

282

(6)

7.4 The United States, III: County Studies

288

(11)

7.5 Canada: The Northern Territories

299

(9)

7.6 Conclusion

308

(2)

8. Mainland Europe

310

(76)

8.1 Introduction

310

(1)

8.2 Europe: An Overview

311

(6)

8.3 Northern Europe: England and Wales

317

(34)

8.4 Scandinavia

351

(13)

8.5 Central Europe

364

(16)

8.6 Further Regional Studies

380

(5)

8.7 Conclusion

385

(1)

9. Islands

386

9.1 Introduction

386

(5)

9.2 The North Atlantic: Arctic and Sub-Arctic Populations

391

(14)

9.3 The Mediterranean: War Epidemics

405

(5)

9.4 The North Pacific: Tropical Poliomyelitis, I—Racial Patterns

410

(2)

9.5 The South Pacific: Tropical Poliomyelitis, II—Provocation

412

(6)

9.6 Indian Ocean: Tropical Poliomyelitis, III—Diffusion Patterns

418

(7)

9.7 Other Regions

425

(3)

9.8 Conclusion

428

(3)

Part III Global Retreat, 1955-1988: Returning Localized Outbreaks

Introduction to Part III

431

(2)

10. Vaccination: The United States Campaigns

433

(36)

10.1 Introduction

433

(2)

10.2 The Vaccines Introduced

435

(7)

10.3 The Geography of Poliomyelitis in a Vaccinated Population, 1955-1971

442

(14)

10.4 CDC Outbreak Investigations and Surveillance

456

(6)

10.5 Poliomyelitis in a Heavily Vaccinated Population, 1972-1988

462

(6)

10.6 Conclusion

468

(1)

11. Vaccination in the Rest of the World

469

(92)

11.1 Introduction

470

(2)

11.2 International Disease Patterns and Vaccination: A Global Overview

472

(6)

11.3 Europe

478

(18)

11.4 Africa

496

(15)

11.5 Americas: Latin America and the Caribbean Basin

511

(12)

11.6 Eastern Mediterranean

523

(12)

11.7 South-East Asia

535

(7)

11.8 Western Pacific

542

(14)

11.9 Other Regions: Antarctica

556

(1)

11.10 Conclusion

557

(4)

Part IV Global Eradication

Introduction to Part IV

561

(2)

12. The Global Poliomyelitis Eradication Initiative (1988-2008 and Beyond)

563

(68)

12.1 Introduction

563

(1)

12.2 Global Control Programmes

564

(7)

12.3 WHO and the Global Polio Eradication Initiative

571

(4)

12.4 Progress towards Eradication (1988-2003)

575

(33)

12.5 The Strategic Plan for Global Polio Eradication, 2004-2008

608

(15)

12.6 Further Issues

623

(5)

12.7 Epilogue

628

(3)

Appendix

631

(41)

References

672

(39)

Index

711

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Poliomyelitis A World Geography: Emergence to Eradication

9780199244744

019924474X

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